Fears of renewed conflict are mounting in northern Ethiopia after authorities in the Tigray region announced plans to restore their regional parliament, a move that risks undermining the fragile peace established after one of Africa’s deadliest recent wars.
The proposed reinstatement of the legislature elected in 2020 has stirred concern in Addis Ababa, as those elections were held in defiance of the federal government and were a key trigger for the devastating Tigray war.
That conflict, which raged between 2020 and 2022, pitted Ethiopia’s federal forces—backed by local militias and troops from neighbouring Eritrea—against fighters loyal to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). It is estimated to have claimed at least 600,000 lives and displaced millions.
The war formally ended with the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement in November 2022, which called for a ceasefire, disarmament of Tigrayan forces, and the restoration of federal authority. However, Tigray’s latest move to revive its 2020 parliament could be seen as contravening that agreement, raising fears that hard-won stability may be slipping.
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Political analysts warn that the decision signals unresolved tensions between Tigray’s regional leadership and the central government, particularly over autonomy, governance, and the pace of post-war recovery.
“There is a real risk that symbolic political steps like this could escalate into a broader confrontation if not carefully managed,” one regional observer noted.
Compounding concerns is the increasingly complex role of Eritrea, whose involvement was pivotal during the war. While Asmara supported Addis Ababa against Tigrayan forces during the conflict, relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia have since cooled significantly.
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Eritrean officials have accused Ethiopia of harbouring ambitions to seize access to the Red Sea through the port of Assab—an allegation that has heightened tensions between the two neighbours. At the same time, there are indications that the TPLF has sought to improve ties with Eritrea, further complicating regional dynamics.
Observers warn that any renewed fighting in Tigray could quickly draw in Eritrea, transforming a domestic dispute into a wider regional crisis.
The spectre of another conflict is particularly alarming given the legacy of the previous war. Between 1998 and 2000, Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a brutal border war that left tens of thousands dead, underscoring the volatility of the Horn of Africa.
Despite these concerns, some analysts believe a return to full-scale war is not inevitable. War fatigue, economic pressures, and continued international engagement may act as deterrents. However, they caution that without sustained dialogue and adherence to the peace agreement, the situation could deteriorate rapidly.
For now, all eyes are on how Addis Ababa and Tigray’s leadership navigate this latest dispute—one that could determine whether Ethiopia continues on a path of fragile peace or slides back toward conflict.
