The World Bank has raised its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.3 per cent, up from the 4.0 per cent growth recorded in 2025, citing improving macroeconomic stability, stronger investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private-sector investment.
The projection is contained in the lender’s October 2026 Africa Economic Update, which also forecasts that Nigeria’s economy will expand by 4.4 per cent annually in 2027 and 2028.
According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s improved outlook reflects the impact of ongoing economic reforms, better macroeconomic management and a gradual revival in private investment.
The lender said, “Economic activity in Nigeria is projected to strengthen from 4.0 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026, before edging up to 4.4 percent annually in 2027–28.”
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Nigeria was among several Sub-Saharan African economies whose growth forecasts were upgraded, alongside Angola, Ethiopia and Zambia.
The World Bank’s Chief Economist for Africa, Andrew Dabalen, said the region had continued to demonstrate resilience despite a challenging global economic environment.
Dabalen noted that growth forecasts had been revised upwards for nearly three-quarters of African countries, reflecting years of reforms and improved economic management. However, he stressed that the next challenge would be translating stronger economic growth into more jobs and better opportunities for citizens.
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Across Sub-Saharan Africa, the World Bank raised its 2026 growth forecast to 4.3 per cent, from the 4.1 per cent projected in April.
The lender attributed the regional improvement to stronger domestic demand, increased macroeconomic resilience and investments linked to the global energy transition and digital technologies.
Despite the positive outlook, the World Bank warned that African economies remain exposed to risks including geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices, tighter global financial conditions, climate-related shocks, insecurity and elevated debt-servicing costs.
The revised forecast comes after stronger-than-expected economic activity in Nigeria during the second quarter of 2026.
Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics show that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2026, compared with 4.23 per cent in Q2 2025 and 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026.
Growth during the quarter was supported by both the oil and non-oil sectors.
The oil sector expanded by 7.31 per cent, while the non-oil economy recorded 4.31 per cent growth.
The services sector remained the largest contributor to Nigeria’s real GDP, accounting for 56.62 per cent of output and growing by 4.60 per cent during the quarter.
Agriculture also recorded stronger growth, expanding by 4.39 per cent, compared with 2.82 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year.
Average daily crude oil production increased to 1.72 million barrels per day in Q2 2026, from 1.55 million barrels per day in the preceding quarter and 1.68 million barrels per day in Q2 2025.
However, the recovery remains uneven.
Industrial growth slowed to 3.96 per cent, compared with 7.46 per cent a year earlier, highlighting continuing pressures from high operating costs, infrastructure challenges, energy shortages and limited access to affordable financing.
The World Bank has also called on African governments to invest in artificial intelligence and develop AI-ready economies, arguing that greater adoption of the technology could improve productivity, support innovation and create new employment opportunities.
Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa were identified among the African countries where AI adoption is already gaining ground.
For Nigeria, the upgraded growth forecast points to improving confidence and economic activity. However, sustaining growth at the projected pace will depend on whether greater macroeconomic stability can translate into stronger private investment, higher productivity, job creation and improved living standards.
