Nigeria’s equities market is projected to cross the N200 trillion market capitalization mark by December 2026, with investors’ returns expected to exceed 57 per cent, as market analysts anticipate fresh momentum from the planned listing of Dangote Petroleum Refinery on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX).
The projections are coming amid a remarkable rally in the Nigerian stock market, driven by improved investor confidence, strong corporate earnings, increased market liquidity, relative stability in the foreign exchange market and favorable macroeconomic developments.
Market analysts also expressed optimism that the NGX All-Share Index (ASI), the market’s key performance benchmark, could close the year at approximately 280,000 points.
However, they cautioned that profit-taking, political uncertainties surrounding the 2027 general elections and developments in the global economy could trigger intermittent market volatility.
According to the analysts, the possible impact of the forthcoming elections would largely depend on the economic policies proposed by political parties and whether investors remain confident in the direction of the country’s economic reforms.
More Read
Nigerian Stock Market Records N62.76trn Wealth Increase
Figures from the market’s year-to-date performance showed that investors’ wealth increased by N62.76 trillion, representing an appreciation of 60.47 per cent as of the previous week.
Market capitalisation, which measures the total value of listed equities, rose from N99.376 trillion at the beginning of 2026 to N162.134 trillion.
Similarly, the NGX All-Share Index appreciated by approximately 60.5 per cent, increasing from 155,613.03 points to 249,710.59 points within the period.
More Read
The impressive performance has been attributed to renewed investor confidence, strong corporate earnings, easing inflation, improved liquidity in the financial system and relative stability in the foreign exchange market.
The decision of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Nigeria to reduce the Monetary Policy Rate to 23 per cent was also identified as one of the factors supporting market performance.
Analyst Projects 57.65% Full-Year Return
Olatunde Amolegbe, immediate past President of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers and Managing Director of Arthur Stevens Asset Management Limited, said he remained cautiously optimistic about the outlook of the Nigerian equities market.
Amolegbe projected that the All-Share Index would deliver a full-year return of approximately 57.65 per cent.
He noted that although the market had recorded impressive gains, some moderation could occur as investors take profits following the significant rally.
According to him, relatively strong corporate earnings, improved investor confidence, increased domestic participation and ongoing economic reforms would continue to provide support for the market.
More Read
He, however, identified inflationary pressures, high interest rates, exchange-rate uncertainties and global economic developments as potential downside risks.
On the impact of the 2027 general elections, Amolegbe said political developments could influence market sentiment, particularly among foreign portfolio investors, who might become more cautious as the elections approach.
He explained that election-related uncertainties could trigger temporary capital outflows, increased volatility and profit-taking as investors assess the implications of possible changes in economic policies.
Nevertheless, he maintained that policy stability, continuity in economic reforms and a credible electoral process could help sustain investor confidence.
He advised investors to remain invested but become more selective, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, sustainable earnings, good corporate governance and attractive valuations.
Dangote Refinery Listing Could Push Market Capitalization Beyond N200trn
Also commenting on the market outlook, Sam Onukwue, immediate past Chairman of the Association of Stockbroking Houses of Nigeria and Managing Director of Mega Equities Limited, said the anticipated listing of Dangote Petroleum Refinery could significantly boost the Nigerian equities market.
Onukwue explained that the secondary equities market experienced a slowdown during much of October 2026 as investors redirected financial resources towards the Dangote Refinery Initial Public Offering (IPO) in the primary market.
He expressed optimism that the conclusion of the IPO would allow the secondary market to regain momentum through the remainder of the year and into the first quarter of 2027.
According to him, the listing could push the market’s capitalization beyond N200 trillion by December 2026.
He also projected that the All-Share Index could close the year at approximately 280,000 points, provided there were no significant negative developments associated with the general elections.
Onukwue added that the maturity of the investing public, domestic economic recovery and the influence of global developments could limit the impact of the forthcoming elections on the equities market.
Market Capitalization Could Hit N210trn
David Adonri, Managing Director of Highcap Securities Limited, offered an even more ambitious projection, saying the anticipated listing of Dangote Refinery could push the market’s capitalization to N210 trillion by December 2026.
Adonri similarly observed that the equities market had experienced a slowdown in October following the movement of financial assets into the Dangote Refinery IPO.
He anticipated a return to normal trading activities following the conclusion of the offering, with the market potentially maintaining its positive trajectory into 2027.
He also projected that the All-Share Index could reach approximately 280,000 points before the end of the year.
Regarding the 2027 elections, Adonri said there was no consistent historical pattern demonstrating that Nigerian capital market performance immediately before and after general elections followed a particular direction.
He added that the maturity of investors and the influence of global economic developments, alongside domestic macroeconomic recovery, could make the current election cycle less disruptive to the equities market.
2027 Elections May Not Derail Market Performance
Meanwhile, market analyst and investment banker, Tajudeen Olayinka, said the Nigerian equities market was expected to experience its traditional year-end rally, although the anticipated listing of Dangote Refinery could temporarily delay the momentum.
Olayinka explained that the market would ordinarily begin building momentum towards its year-end rally around the second week of November.
However, he noted that the refinery’s anticipated IPO listing could influence the timing of the rally before potentially generating renewed buying interest.
He expressed confidence that investors could still record positive year-end returns, provided there were no major negative developments affecting the market and the broader economy.
On the first nine months of the year, Olayinka said the first and second quarters recorded particularly strong performances due to increased liquidity from retail and institutional investors.
However, he observed that trading activities became sluggish towards the end of the second quarter following concerns among some institutional investors over the adoption of the T+1 settlement cycle by the NGX and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
He added that the third quarter experienced some bearish sentiment, with attempts to initiate fresh rallies weakened by the significant movement of liquidity towards the Dangote Refinery IPO.
On the political outlook, Olayinka said the 2027 general elections might not necessarily have a negative impact on the market.
However, he warned that campaign promises centred on reversing fuel subsidy reforms and the absence of clearly defined economic programmes from opposition political camps could create uncertainty and slow investment activities.
He noted that the situation differed from the run-up to the 2023 presidential election, when the three leading candidates were perceived as supportive of market-oriented economic policies.
According to him, investors were already assessing and adjusting their portfolios to reflect emerging political and economic risks.
Outlook
With market capitalization already standing above N162 trillion and the All-Share Index approaching the 250,000-point threshold, analysts believe the anticipated Dangote Refinery listing could become a major catalyst for further growth.
Although concerns over profit-taking, inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate movements and political uncertainties remain, the general outlook among the analysts is positive.
The coming weeks are therefore expected to be significant for the Nigerian equities market as investors position themselves for the anticipated refinery listing, possible year-end rally and the economic uncertainties surrounding the 2027 general elections.
